FOI/202500470442 · FOI · unclear
Calculations of UK Government’s spending review: FOI release
Information requested
Responding to the UK Government’s spending review on 11th June 2025, Shona Robison said:
“Had our resource funding for day-to-day priorities grown in line with the UK Government's overall spending, we would have £1.1 billion more to spend on our priorities over the next three years. In effect, Scotland has been short-changed by more than a billion pounds.”
Please provide the calculations which justify this statement.
Response
Table 5.3 of the UK Government’s Spending Review document details that the Average Annual Real Growth for Resource Departmental Expenditure Limits excluding depreciation from 2025-26 to 2028-29 is 1.2%. This can be found online here.
If the Scottish Government was provided with 1.2% consistent real terms growth across the Spending Review period (following uplift of GDP deflator to achieve the base position each year), the settlement figures would be as follows:
Financial Year Prior year settlement (£’m) GDP Deflator Inflationary settlement (£’m) Growth Rate 1.2% real terms settlement(£’m) 2026-27 41,613 1.66% 42,302 1.2% 42,809 2027-28 42,809 2.04% 43,681 1.2% 44,206 2028-29 44,206 1.95% 45,066 1.2% 45,607
These figures have been compared to our actual block grant settlement from the UK spending review, as per the table below.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 Total 1.2% real terms settlement (£’m) 41,613 42,809 44,206 45,607 Spending Review settlement (£’m) 41,613 42,714 43,840 45,018 Difference (£’m) - 95 366 589 1,050
Figures are rounded to the nearest million.
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