FOI/202300385628 · FOI · released
Scottish Government modelling: FOI release
Information requested
This request relates to the “Scottish Government modelling” mentioned in this publication: https://www.gov.scot/news/bad-brexit-deal-for-scotland-1/.
Please provide the mentioned modelling, including the full spreadsheets, and all correspondence, minutes, notes, and any other relevant documents surrounding the process of the modelling.
Response
I enclose a copy of of the information you requested. The modelling referenced in the request was published in full in the publication Scotland's place in Europe: people, jobs and investment - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) in January 2018.
As noted in the publication, the Scottish Government’s Global Econometric Model (SGGEM) is a large scale structural global econometric model, created by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and is based on an adaptation of their own National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). The model is not spreadsheet based and further information is available on the NIESR website NiGEM Macroeconomic Model - NIESR.
The modelling results and full details of the modelling approach including all scenarios and assumptions used are outlined in the Technical Annex of the above publication. Specifically, the number quoted in the press release relates to the modelling of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) scenario.
Document 1 provides further information on the process of the modelling.
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